XPeng under pressure: Barclays and Macquarie lower targets after weak sales guidance

Barclays and Macquarie reduce XPeng's price target after weak Q1 guidance, as the company aims for seven models in 2026 and international expansion.

Summary of results and Q1 guidance

XPeng reported the fourth quarter with its first quarterly net profit, marking a milestone for the company.

On the other hand, the sales guidance for the first quarter came in below expectations, which cooled Wall Street enthusiasm.

Barclays and Macquarie issued new research notes on Monday, lowering the price targets for XPeng's New York-listed shares, citing weaker demand and anticipated higher costs.

• Barclays: target revised to $16 (from $17), with an Underweight rating.
• Macquarie: target to $19, with a change from Outperform to Neutral.

XPeng shares closed down 8.4% on Friday, at $17.55. Barclays' read suggests an additional ~8.8% downside, while Macquarie indicates a possible ~8.3% contrary move depending on the scenario. In Monday's pre-market, the stock was up ~4.2%, hitting $18.29.

Q1 Guidance and Key Figures

Macquarie notes that despite still valuing XPeng's physical AI, there is no guarantee of volume growth this year, with XPeng indicating a sales drop between 61 thousand and 66 thousand units in Q1 globally.

In the last quarter, XPeng delivered 116,249 EVs, with gross margin rising to 21.3% — up from 14.4% in the same period of 2024.

In the first two months of 2026, the company delivered 35,267 vehicles, suggesting that March will be between 25,733 and 30,733. Even at the ceiling, this level remains below the 33,205 deliveries of March 2025.

Hsiao, from Macquarie, observed that the firm reduced its 2026 annual volume estimates by 7% due to weaker early demand.

Barclays analyst Jiong Shao also commented that the Q1 delivery guidance was "a little below our expectations."

New Launches and Product Strategy

XPeng continues to focus on its future models, even with caveats regarding government policies and intense competition in the Chinese NEV market.

The company plans to launch seven models in 2026 — four new models from large to small size, plus three range-extended (EREV) variants of existing 100% electric models.

Highlights include the GX, the first six-seater, three-row flagship, which is already being tested in China and is expected to open pre-sales in the second quarter.

The GX will compete with the Nio ES8/ES9, the Onvo L90, the Li Auto i8, the Tesla Model Y L, and the Zeekr 9X.

Other launches include two SUVs under the Mona line, seeking to expand the brand's reach across different price ranges.

According to Hsiao, "shares usually outperform the market when XPeng introduces a strong product" (like the P7+ and the Mona M03), but it is still early to know if the GX or the new Mona line in H2 2025 will bring a similar impact.

Foreign Market and International Expansion

Founder He Xiaopeng stated that as new models gain traction, XPeng should maintain solid quarter-over-quarter growth. Nevertheless, Shao points out that the only clear path for Chinese EV manufacturers is the international market.

According to Shao, XPeng is expected to grow its overseas sales by over 100% this year, accounting for more than 20% of total vehicle sales.

In 2025, the brand delivered 45,008 vehicles internationally, about 10% of the total for the year, and the goal for 2026 is to reach 90,016 units overseas to achieve this share. The company aims for 1 million international sales by 2030 and has already expanded its presence to 60 markets.

AI Investments and Expenses

Barclays highlights that XPeng has been aggressively investing in robotaxis and humanoid robots, with ambitious goals for these projects by the end of the year.

The company announced in November plans to launch three robotaxi models in 2026 — with 5, 6, and 7-seater configurations — with pilot driver operations starting in the second half and an objective of fully driverless operation in early 2027.

Rapid growth of the robotaxi business is expected between 2027 and 2028. Although there are advances, analyst Jiong Shao expressed concern about XPeng's ability to finance and manage several simultaneous initiatives.

XPeng recorded 9.5 billion yuan in R&D spending in 2025, of which 4.5 billion yuan went to AI. Regarding 2026, the company announced plans to invest 7 billion yuan in physical AI-related R&D this year, in addition to the existing budget for vehicle development.

Macquarie lowered its 2026 earnings per share estimate to -1.28 yuan (from -0.45 yuan), citing higher R&D expenses.

Conclusion

With recent profit and AI ambitions, XPeng continues to reshape its territory in a competitive and challenging regulatory environment in China, with increasing emphasis on international expansion and new product lines.

What do you think of XPeng's international push and its AI investments? Leave your comment below with your opinion on the company's future.