Alert: Sell Your EV Now, Before the Value Plummets

The used EV market could drop with the wave of lease returns; understand who might be most affected and when to act.

The used electric vehicle market may undergo a rapid correction in the coming months, as a wave of lease returns reaches dealerships, putting downward pressure on prices.

Industry data indicates that between January 2023 and September 2025, more than 1.1 million EVs were leased. In the second quarter of 2024, almost half of the EVs in circulation were already on lease.

Furthermore, tax incentives of up to $7,500 per vehicle contributed to attractive offers, boosting leasing volume. With the mass return approaching, the supply-demand relationship could change rapidly, favoring buyers in the short term.

What is driving the drop

• Mass lease returns predicted by Cox Automotive, which are expected to flood the used market in the coming months.
• Increased supply combined with weaker demand puts pressure on prices to fall.
• Rapid advances in battery technology and greater range in new models make older EVs less attractive by comparison.
• Traditionally, many leases have a high buyout price, incentivizing return instead of purchase at the end of the contract.

Who might suffer the most and when

Popular models expected to feel the impact most intensely include the Ford Mustang Mach-E, Volkswagen ID.4, Hyundai Ioniq, Tesla Model 3, and Tesla Model Y.

Predicted Depreciation (CarEdge data)

• Ford Mustang Mach-E: 57% after 5 years
• Hyundai Ioniq 5: 60%
• Tesla Model 3: 61%
• Tesla Model Y: 61%
• Volkswagen ID.4: 63%

What dealerships can do

Automakers and dealerships will need to be ready with strategies to protect used fleet values, such as encouraging customers to keep leases longer or adjusting customer retention plans.

And what this means for buyers and sellers

For those considering selling an EV, now may be the time to act before supply increases further. Meanwhile, those looking for a used EV may find opportunities, especially among models with lower or higher predicted depreciation.

Additional context shaping the scenario

Until September 2025, there was a federal tax credit of up to $7,500 for EVs, which helped make leasing offers particularly attractive in practice. Between January 2023 and September 2025, over 1.1 million EVs were leased, and in the second quarter of 2024, almost half of the EVs in use were already on lease. Leases are typically 36 months, suggesting that many vehicles will return to the used market starting in April 2026, increasing price pressure.

If the trend confirms itself, EV depreciation may continue to accelerate, at least in the coming months, with some brands and models being more exposed than others.

Comment below: do you plan to sell your EV now or wait? Which model do you think will suffer the most from this wave of returns?